I honestly can't see any of current Linux desktops ever reaching 10% market share. They had their chances when KDE3 was stable, when GNOME2 was stable. Those had all the bases covered, GNOME2 in particular was that retarded "open file" dialogue aside the best, stablest, simplest and most functional desktop around. Now with GNOME3 (aka tablet for desktops) and KDE4 (aka clusterfuck insanity full power) it has all gone downhill big time. Keyword is stability. Both GNOME3 devs and KDE4 devs apparently think that change for sake of change is a good idea. Especially the latter. None of KDE4 promises have materialised.
After so many years as Linux user/contributor I've grown tired of this. I stopped contributing, now I'm considering to go FreeBSD for ports and stability. The 10% free desktop market share will come when some group actually has a clear vision, code quality and consistence. Thus, I assume Haiku OS will take the crown in 2-3 years in a totally unexpected surge in usage because Windows 8 is tablet oriented, GNOME3 is tablet oriented, KDE4 doesn't know what it is and OS X has started to resemble iOS. Others? No chance. Unless a wild BSD variant appears with in-house desktop enviroment that they also plan to support for years with consistent UI (Microsoft & Apple recipe to success).
Hell, I'd go as far as pronounce the bazaar model dead and cathedral won after all.
After so many years as Linux user/contributor I've grown tired of this. I stopped contributing, now I'm considering to go FreeBSD for ports and stability. The 10% free desktop market share will come when some group actually has a clear vision, code quality and consistence. Thus, I assume Haiku OS will take the crown in 2-3 years in a totally unexpected surge in usage because Windows 8 is tablet oriented, GNOME3 is tablet oriented, KDE4 doesn't know what it is and OS X has started to resemble iOS. Others? No chance. Unless a wild BSD variant appears with in-house desktop enviroment that they also plan to support for years with consistent UI (Microsoft & Apple recipe to success).
Hell, I'd go as far as pronounce the bazaar model dead and cathedral won after all.
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