Originally posted by M@GOid
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It's very unclear quite where Apple is relative to where they "should" be and analysis is substantially conditioned by emotion.
One viewpoint is: after GW3 and Manu left, the whole thing fell apart and Apple from now on is basically just like any other vendor, optimized for mobile, but with minor unexciting improvements every year.
A variant of this theory doesn't blame the exiting engineers but says that's just the state of technology, that Apple has reached the far frontiers, and all improvements now (in process, and in SoC design) are so difficult they are slow.
Personally I see things very differently, that covid basically screwed over everyone's plans (this also includes, to be fair, AMD, Intel, and nV). Apple probably had a particular schedule in mind that included "SoC-next" designed for N3 and designed to ship as the A16. But then TSMC had to delay N3 (possibly internal failure, but I'm more inclined to think covid slowed down a plan that would otherwise have worked) and Apple had to ship the A16 as basically an A15 on N4 so with slight frequency boost.
Point is: in my worldview,
- M2 Pro and Max are somewhat behind schedule. They were probably supposed to have been based on the N3 design, but at some point it looked like that was too much of a delay.
- We still have the big chips (or to put it differently, the "desktop" chips) to look forward to, and my hope remains that those are the genuine N3 chips, fabbed on N3 using the SoC that was designed for N3 and not just a grown-up A15 or even A16. Obviously there's somewhat more slack in the schedule for those (Apple obviously wants to ship the Mac Pro, but can get away with delaying it to WWDC, and announcing these new designs gives them some media oxygen for a few more months.
If you look at the schedule we have
Sept 2020 A14
Nov 2020 M1
Oct 2021 M1 Pro Max
March 2022 M1 Ultra
Sept 2021 A15
June 2022 M2
Jan 2023 M2 Pro Max
Sept 2022 A16 (on N4)
To me this looks like a schedule that's constantly trying to delay things to see what of two options (plan A or a fallback plan B) are feasible, not a long-term strategy playing out as designed.
I think there's scope (given these schedules) for an M3 (if necessary based on the A16) say around to May, if Apple feels they need more PR, while still leaving a fair amount of time for the desktop designs by WWDC (June).
The real interest going forward, I think, is whether the Desktop line will (in some sense) split off from the mobile line. (Not drastically so, but think of how Intel separates Xeons from i5/7/9.) And whether Apple will simply drop desktops on N5/N4 and move them to N3 so that they now lead (rather than massively lag) mobile.
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