Originally posted by Marc Driftmeyer
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Given that best evidence points to the next-generation openGL borrowing liberally, if not entirely, from Mantle, I think your timeline is off though -- Developers don't really need to ramp up with these new APIs since they're very close to what they've been doing on consoles for years (there have been reports of shops porting their console render paths to Mantle in a handful of days, some of them just hours) -- AMD will easily be able to pivot their Mantle driver code to Vulkan, and nVidia and Intel will have sufficient motivation to not lag far behind -- plus, they all have D3D12 drivers already, which won't themselves be a far cry from Vulkan, in all likelihood. I say 12 months before *most* PC releases support one or both Vulkan/D3D12, and just 6 months for high-profile games, engines, and middleware.
I don't this will have any significant impact on nVidia's business, other than the minor Halo effect of AMD's early (and likely more-stable, to begin with) support for these new APIs. I am looking forward to upgrading to a tasty new 390x though.
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