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Originally posted by marathone
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Spanish flu has been highly researched. Giving Spanish flu 3 percent death rate same as Covid-19 is me being very conservative. Autopsy of those who died were very clear. The first successful vaccine against 1918 Spanish flu when rechecked in modern day turned out not to work against the virus but only against the bacteria.
Wikipedia Spanish flu write up has a good list of cites. When you follow them they provide you with stack of useful data to find all the other cites.
The reality is the virus of the 1918 Spanish Flu was most likely no worse than a really bad flu year. Autopsy of those dieing from covid-19 are death from the virus not secondary infection.
There is a good table on the Wikipedia but you have to read it carefully.
We have had the Spanish flu virus twice basically twice. 2009 flu pandemic was also H1N1/09 basically its a vernation on the Spanish Flu. It fill hospitals. But only 0.01% died. Not having the bacteria infection reduced the lethality of H1N1 by basically a scale of 1000. The reality we have been getting the Spanish Flu virus relatives regularly with about the same level of lethality.
At worst most pandemic flu virus direct 0.3% death rate from all the ones that we can confirm this covers the Spanish flu and Spanish flu virus was not the worse here. Covid-19 is at least 1% death direct from virus when averaged across populations.
Covid-19 virus is pandemic class due to is rapid effective spread. Really bad flu season infected to dead is still only 0.1% those seasons there has normally not been any vaccine to the virus causing the deaths. Covid-19 on lethality from the virus is somewhere between 10-300 times worse than normal flu virus. The reality here is the rapid spreading human to human virus Covid-19 is in a totally different class.
Think about it if a secondary bacteria infection with Spanish flu takes a 0.1-0.01% death rate from virus and converts it into 10% death rate. The long we have covid-19 around that we cannot treat/control the risk of a secondary bacteria infection appearing increases. People think Covid-19 bad now. If effective secondary bacteria infection appears the result will be at least 10 times worse.
The reality here is what we are seeing in covid-19 death rate at moment is basically tip of iceberg. We have chance with correct action to avoid that iceberg mostly.
The people who got sick/died from covid-19 are like the canary in the coal mine the expendable warning if we don't take the data they have provided us by getting sick/dieing serous-ally a lot more will join them.
Yes what trump and others like him did did with Covid-19 was walk coal mine see the canary drop dead and keep on walking in then having to fight to get your team members back out as they fall over from the toxic gas. Yes you can still at this point in a mine to choose to walk stupidly in deeper and the death rate keep on increasing.
Its really simple to forget globally we have passed 1.54M dead globally that are confirmed from covid-19. This is already more dead confirmed than any pure virus pandemic that has ever happened before in documented history with a higher lethality from pure virus based pandemic than all of documented history. We are more than on path to pass 4 Million what is the highest suspected that a pure virus based pandemic has caused.
If you look at the number of people who have been infected to global population if they can only be infected once covid-19 numbers could still get at least 50 times worse mind you that is conservative as we have already documented that not everyone who gets covid-19 gets long term immunity.
The data on covid-19 says we cannot afford to play it down its way too dangerous.
The one of big things is how many illnesses covid-19 disease control is showing most likely caused by viruses we have been mostly ignoring this could be the long term silver lining from covid-19 better long term health by properly dealing with virus caused illnesses instead of ignoring them.
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