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The outcome is irrelevant. Forks are just too dramatic.
That's just a nonsensical statement. Some forks catch on and thrive alongside the original project, or even while the original project goes astray (thinkg Xorg vs Xfree, Inkscape vs Sodipodi, Firefox vs Seamonkey, FreeBSD/NetBSD vs BSD386 etc...). Some die out when it turns out that they have nothing interesting to offer (typically the ***BSD fork of the week). Some develop something interesting which then gets merged back, these are commonly known as development branches ;-)
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