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It Doesn't Look Like Ubuntu Reached Its Goal Of 200 Million Users This Year

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  • It Doesn't Look Like Ubuntu Reached Its Goal Of 200 Million Users This Year

    Phoronix: It Doesn't Look Like Ubuntu Reached Its Goal Of 200 Million Users This Year

    Four years ago at UDS Budapest was a lofty goal laid out by Mark Shuttleworth: 200 million users in four years...

    http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?pag...-Million-Users

  • #2
    Getting market share isn't magic. ChromeOS is literally Gentoo running a browser and they sell like hotcakes because Google spends big bucks on advertising and getting them on store shelves. I am sure they had to pay off all the hardware OEMs to develop their own as well.

    If Ubuntu or Gnome wanted market share, they just need to throw a few hundred million at it so computers running their software were on store shelves and being shoved down consumers throats via adverts. I really wonder why that has not happened yet! What could be holding them up? (cough money cough)

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    • #3
      As mentioned in the article the main reason Canonical is off target is probably Ubuntu Touch being further behind in development than it was planned.

      If Canonical had got Unity 8 onto the desktop and Touch working with all the convergence features I think the estimates would have been realistic. Without convergence in Touch or Unity 8 on the desktop there's been no compelling reason for user numbers to increase dramatically.

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      • #4
        Yeah, Chromebooks and Android are the winning Linux platforms. I have Debian on my Android and the full Gentoo (via dev_install) on my Chromebook. The reason both platforms are successful is that their default mode is as an appliance - safe for the technically challenged. A few clicks, and both turn into full GNU/Linux environments.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by zanny View Post
          Getting market share isn't magic. ChromeOS is literally Gentoo running a browser and they sell like hotcakes because Google spends big bucks on advertising and getting them on store shelves. I am sure they had to pay off all the hardware OEMs to develop their own as well.

          If Ubuntu or Gnome wanted market share, they just need to throw a few hundred million at it so computers running their software were on store shelves and being shoved down consumers throats via adverts. I really wonder why that has not happened yet! What could be holding them up? (cough money cough)

          I think you are exactly right on this.
          When machines with Steam OS hits the stores i think it could change.

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          • #6
            well only way is PRE-INSTALLED and SURVIVE ON THE LONG TERM. Only Valve, Canonical and google are really doing it. SteamOS / linux still needs more games & Vulkan to be adopted. But Valve have their long term strategy so they're not backing out. Ubuntu doesn't have convergence yet, but their long term strategy is still in place (and they may survive unlike FirefoxOS and JOLLA), since the new features are being integrated either way into the CORE desktop product. As for google ChromeOS started slow, but 3 years later it has grabbed a place in the education market taking share from Apple.

            Once SteamOS and Ubuntu meet the features they promised, the demand will rise.

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            • #7
              Well this is normal, company try to reach some high level goal, if don't they look how to improve. It's that way you make challenge with a highly goal. It's the same as the ubuntu phone on kickstarter they measure how many people will interested on high end phone at that time.

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              • #8
                That canonical failed I agree, but to take the steamstatistics as a messure of linux users sucks, even if that numbers would be correct (and many claim they never get a survay under linux) it only messures the number of gamers, and that is much much lower than the number of users. logical, because gaming under linux is one of its weak spots. In this statistic as example Windows 10 has a high adoption rate which is way way higher than the normal adoption rate of windows 10 (which is not much higher than windows 7 rate was at that timeframe, which is weak when you know they give it away for free and even force you to upgrade nearly.

                So if this valve number is nowhere messuring users but only gamers, I am hesitating to belive this 1.5% Statcounter messures as example ios and android together as 40% (in devices shipped that should be higher I think?) but that are no desktop oses, so you easy can calculatee from that that the real number is at least 2.5%.

                then I even question if the numbers of web requests is the right one, how much dualboot systems are out there, that are linux-ready-to-go machines. the users know linux, that is what matters, they are ready for a real migration in a eyeblink, if some important facts change. Then there are differnt age groups... advertisment also only concentrades on some groups of people because the others give not really out money. do the 6% windows xp matter? this people dont care much about pc aparently, or its businesses.

                thats another thing if a business makes himself dependend in vendorlocked yes it can make them go bankrupt but other than that get a person harmed from it? I care primary about private persons.

                And then there are trends, bad adoption rate for windows 10 is a sign that people dont want to get forced and they get sick of it, and even long years windows users that never wanted to switch to linux or still not doing it get really pissed about windows. It takes people long to change their habbits, and windows xp was the strongest phase of windows. Even in this time frame linux became a noob ready os that is at least as easy to use than windows it did not matter because windows xp united everything (more or less).

                Now windows could not be more fragmented, we have still many windows xp users, many like their windows 7, some have windows 8.1 and see no reason to switch to 10 then you have windows 10. thats 4 different directx versions each game developer have to target now, grafic card levels not even taken in amount.

                The funny thing Microsoft seen that problem, tried to fixing that by forcing downloads and upgrades, what got them exactly the opposite a big backslash and many people that feel what giving all power over your pc to microsoft means.

                Will it be a ruff ride? Yes, we will never get over 10% market share with people manually install GNU/Linux, but things are happenig, like steamos.

                but whatever does it really matter? Partialy Yes Partialy No. As long as there is good support for hardware mainly a bit software, does it matter that other people torture themself with windows and install spyoses?

                There are always people that go and pay other people to fix their car, and there are some that do it themself, of course the ones paying somebody get screwed if they are lucky only a bit if nnot then much.

                I just doubt this 1.5% maybe its really only 2.5% (if you dont count this telephone oses) and not the 4 to 5% I have in my head but 1.5% is not true for desktop pcs.

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                • #9
                  I think the problem is the same as Microsoft's. Concentrating on mobile and desktop world at the same time and trying to make an OS that fits both. Marketing as well, that's why MS didn't go extinct yet.

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                  • #10
                    Microsoft has a very well co-ordinated juggernaut of a machine to ensure market share. They rely largely on deals with OEMs and having loads of laptops and prebuilt desktops shipped with Windows installed.

                    Canonical has to play the same game on a smaller scale. When I started using Linux I realised that it's pretty straightforward for everyday tasks and not so different to windows. I had Firefox for web browsing, VLC for movies, steam for games. Adopting libre office for office stuff and banshee for music was easy. It was very easy for me as a new Linux user to continue to do those basic tasks. Which makes me think that millions more people would actually be ok with Linux if given the chance. Maybe the fact that the unity desktop has been so controversial held Ubuntu back. Also I guess people who want to do slightly more involved stuff such as installing drivers or had to use the command line may have been put off.

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