AMD EPYC 9755 / 9575F / 9965 Benchmarks Show Dominating Performance

[mSparks]

Intel is not going anywhere, do you remember back in the 90's when Apple was near bankruptcy?

Look at Apple today.

Intel has hit some rough times but I have already stated my reasons why I strongly believe that Intel will bounce back big time.

Intel are at best the nokia in this story, not apple.

Before that comes the consequences of their dividend still being higher than their EPS...

You are trying to catch a falling knife.

[sophisticles]

Intel are at best the nokia in this story, not apple.

Before that comes the consequences of their dividend still being higher than their EPS...

You are trying to catch a falling knife.

No, the knife already fell as far as it was going to go when the share price hit just under 19.

No is the time to pick the knife up, wash it and use it again.

By the end of the year Intel will receive 8.5 billion from the U.S, Government and Intel is the only one with fabs in the U.S.

When, not if, China decides to move against Taiwan, the U.S. is not going to defend it nor are they going to supply it with weapons ala Ukraine.

What the U.S. is going to do is tell China enjoy your new prize,

This is why the Biden administration has pushed so hard to bring fabs into the U.S. and why it's pushing both AMD and NVIDIA to use Intel's fabs,

No matter who wins in November this i not going to change, Harris has said she plans on continuing with Biden's policies, and Trump is clearly an isolationist that has pushed for more self reliance and less dependence on foreign manufacturing.

There are geopolitical forces at work here that transcend any perceived failures on Intel management's part.

[mSparks]

No, the knife already fell as far as it was going to go when the share price hit just under 19.

Nope, not even close to finishing falling even before it was confirmed they are no longer remotely competitive in the server space, because:

https://ycharts.com/companies/INTC/eps

That means they were already going to have to slash their dividends again (probably just stop them completely), that will likely wipe another 50% off their market value, probably more.

By the end of the year Intel will receive 8.5 billion from the U.S, Government and Intel is the only one with fabs in the U.S.

All of which and more is going straight to ASML in the Netherlands, plus US land owners and construction companies - NOT Intel shareholders - Intel shareholders wont see any outcome from that unless and until Intel creates a business that can compete with TMSC and SMIC, and that is about as likely as Disney launching an official range of 18+ furry porn at the entrance to every Disneyland.

[coder]

Go back and reread my prediction, I said 27 by end of October, 35 by years end, 55 by June/July 2025 and 100 by end of 2025.

Yes, I still stand by that.

Did you consider what the loss of the Chinese market will mean for Intel?

Intel is not going anywhere, do you remember back in the 90's when Apple was near bankruptcy?

Look at Apple today.

We can find a lot of examples that were doing poorly in the 1990's and have since failed. Apple was like a 0.01% outlier and they only soared as a result of tapping vast new markets and still managing to maintain high margins, while doing so.

What are the vast new markets, for Intel? AI could be one, but they've been trying for a while and have yet to make serious inroads, there. Meanwhile, they face the double-whammy of both losing the Chinese market and facing new competitors out of China. China won't compete at the high end, initially, but they could edge Intel out of the low-end high-volume market, in much of the world.

[coder]

Before that comes the consequences of their dividend still being higher than their EPS...

Gelsinger cancelled the dividend. I think that was the right thing to do, but came much too late.

[coder]

By the end of the year Intel will receive 8.5 billion from the U.S, Government and Intel is the only one with fabs in the U.S.

It's not free money. It's to help pay for capital investments that were already planned (with part government funding already accounted for) and won't see a return for years.

When, not if, China decides to move against Taiwan, the U.S. is not going to defend it nor are they going to supply it with weapons ala Ukraine.

What the U.S. is going to do is tell China enjoy your new prize,

I almost agree, here. The US couldn't back Taiwan if it wanted to, because nothing will get through the blockade. In response, what the US will do is increase sanctions and deprive TSMC of the support and supply chain it's currently relying upon, not simply tell China to "enjoy its new prize".

Either way, it's going to make the chip crunch of 2021 look like a walk in the park. However, the earliest estimates I've seen for that are 2027, and that was already a couple years ago. You could probably wait a while longer, if that's the only reason you want to invest in Intel.

Trump is clearly an isolationist that has pushed for more self reliance and less dependence on foreign manufacturing.

I think China overestimated him. All they had to do was say some nice things about him & offer him some sweet real estate deals and we might've seen his tone on China change rather dramatically. Look how his message on Tik Tok has changed, now that one of his financial backers has a major stake in it? Trump has no ideology, other than Trump. He ultimately does whatever is good for him and what would put him in the best standing with his social circle and the people he envies.

[mSparks]

Gelsinger cancelled the dividend. I think that was the right thing to do, but came much too late.

They cut it from $0.365/Q to $0.125/Q in early 2023, since then their earnings have already continued to deteriorate to the point diluted EPS is negative again. (last time was Dec 2022.)

..
Ahhh, yeah, they suspended it in August,

https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-forecasts-third-quarter-revenue-below-estimates-cut-15-jobs-2024-08-01/

[coder]

All of which and more is going straight to ASML in the Netherlands, plus US land owners and construction companies - NOT Intel shareholders - Intel shareholders

Yes, there are safeguards to make sure the money doesn't end up just flowing through, into shareholders pockets. I'm not worried about that.

unless and until Intel creates a business that can compete with TMSC and SMIC,

SMIC is no problem until at least 10 years from now. The ones who have to worry about them are like Global Foundries, since SMIC will undercut them on old nodes. I know SMIC claims to have 5 nm, but that's with multi-patterning, has a low yield, and using equipment bought before the sanctions kicked in. It's not a homegrown capability.

Did you mean Samsung, perhaps? They've not had an easy time, lately, but might still be somewhat competitive with Intel.

The Japanese are trying to get back on the leading edge, after a couple decades of stagnation. Their government is shoveling funds into Rapidus. It's also worth keeping in mind that Kioxia is still producing leading-edge NAND memory there.

and that is about as likely as Disney launching an official range of 18+ furry porn at the entrance to every Disneyland.

Oh my, such a colorful metaphor!
🐭

[sophisticles]

Nope, not even close to finishing falling even before it was confirmed they are no longer remotely competitive in the server space, because:

https://ycharts.com/companies/INTC/eps

That means they were already going to have to slash their dividends again (probably just stop them completely), that will likely wipe another 50% off their market value, probably more.

All of which and more is going straight to ASML in the Netherlands, plus US land owners and construction companies - NOT Intel shareholders - Intel shareholders wont see any outcome from that unless and until Intel creates a business that can compete with TMSC and SMIC, and that is about as likely as Disney launching an official range of 18+ furry porn at the entrance to every Disneyland.

So you think what, that Intel will cease to exist, go bankrupt?

You think Israel will ever let that happen?

You think the U.S. will ever let that happen?

You think AMD or Microsoft will ever let that happen?

Intel is not going anywhere, they have had some rough bumps in the road and some hiccups, but they have some good technology and if management can squeeze their heads out of their asses they will be just fine.

Remember, 55 by June/July of 2025.

[coder]

So you think what, that Intel will cease to exist, go bankrupt?

No.

You think Israel will ever let that happen?

LOL. Israel is a country of less than 10M, with a GDP of only $530B and lots of expenses. They are in no position to prop up Intel. They already subsidize what it does there.

You think AMD or Microsoft will ever let that happen?

Why would they care? MS has fully embraced ARM. AMD looks to be moving in that direction, as well. x86 is losing monopoly status, so it really wouldn't matter if Intel went away (not that I think it will).

Intel is not going anywhere,

No, but they might be forced to spin off their fabs, before the fabs are commercially viable. That would result in them basically turning into another Global Foundries story of stagnation and competing on old nodes, where they would face a serious threat from China, before long.