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A Kernel Maintainer's Prediction On The CPU Architecture Landscape For 2030

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  • A Kernel Maintainer's Prediction On The CPU Architecture Landscape For 2030

    Phoronix: A Kernel Maintainer's Prediction On The CPU Architecture Landscape For 2030

    In addition to talking about code/hardware obsolescence from the Linux kernel, prominent upstream Linux kernel developer Arnd Bermann also presented at last week's Linux Plumbers Conference on the current SoC landscape and sharing his predictions for ten years down the road...

    http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?pag...CPU-Archs-2030

  • #2
    Even though I agree, historically making short-term predictions about computing never works. More importantly, as the x86 patents dry out there will be new x86 players and we might see a repeat of the early 90s' MIPS and ARM workstations failure.

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    • #3
      I expect we'll be in an economic depression for the next decade at least, until a new economic system emerges which will be adapted to operate within the context of the converging bio-physical constraints we're now hitting.

      To my mind, this will mean a lot of repurposing of existing tech with much less focus of new hardware on consumer products due to unaffordability, while high end will look to the best value performance options which may provide an opportunity for RISC-V and POWER with the "consumer subsidy" removed.

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      • #4
        the start of 128-bit computing
        He's either a clown, or trolling.

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        • #5
          One thing I don't think was considered is all the lost trust in x86, because, let's face it, for desktop users the only thing x86 has going for it anymore is that it plays games better than the rest. But thanks to Intel, x86 isn't much of a trusted platform these days so POWER has the potential to pull in x86 users that don't want to go to ARM. It'll be interesting to see what happens once Wine & Hangover become "gamer ready" on ARM and POWER because those are the two most primed to take x86's desktop/workstation spot.

          For servers, the architecture is more moot since we're talking about Linux and how, for the most part, Linux is pretty architecture agnostic and runs the same everywhere. They'll pick an architecture based on being good at either low-power or high speed computing depending on their needs...which makes me wonder:

          Since modern x86 CPUs are said to be RISC-like at their core with additional features and whatnot added on, I wonder why AMD or Intel don't move on to RISC-V or (Open)Power and then figure out how to add on all the x86 stuff on, preferably in a modular, dual-cpu like, way so we can remove the hardware security hole if or when we don't need it. Imagine, instead of having to buy entire new systems every couple of years we could get by with buying a newer instruction set module.

          How much of your 2010-1014 hardware is still perfectly viable outside of not having AVX8675309? I feel like a plug-in interface for CPU instructions could reduce a lot of computing waste and, if they go that route, an open CPU platform is the way to go to prevent Intel SpecEx shenanigans that allow hackers to dump manure trucks behind windtunnel fans. Do we really want that much shit to hit the fan again?

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          • #6
            I don't think that was much of a sharp-minded prediction at all.
            He did not touch the more interesting subjects at all.
            Oh well...

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            • #7
              Hmm, no quantum computing mentioned?

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              • #8
                Originally posted by s_j_newbury View Post
                I expect we'll be in an economic depression for the next decade at least, until a new economic system emerges which will be adapted to operate within the context of the converging bio-physical constraints we're now hitting.

                To my mind, this will mean a lot of repurposing of existing tech with much less focus of new hardware on consumer products due to unaffordability, while high end will look to the best value performance options which may provide an opportunity for RISC-V and POWER with the "consumer subsidy" removed.
                The computer industry is apart when it comes to the "bio-physical constraints we're now hitting". Quarantine does not prevent from consuming virtual things (it's the opposite) and growth in the computer power is driven by size reduction, not energy consumption increase. That said, silicon computer will definitely, and I believe quickly, hit their own physical limitation. Due to their size getting closer to atomic scale, integrated circuit components will stop to be more compact every other generation. At this point, there will still be room for optimization, but without transition to another base material than silicon, which will also have limits, a transition that could lead to serious changes in the market, the growth of computing power will slow down and stop.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Weasel View Post
                  He's either a clown, or trolling.
                  I assume he has no idea what he is talking about. If you talk about register width and processed bits per operation we already have 512bit processors, if you talk about addressing, there is no point. He could mean 128bit floating point, they are starting to appear in hardware, but under that logic x86 (with FPU) was an 80bit processor

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by c117152 View Post
                    as the x86 patents dry out there will be new x86 players
                    you have vivid imagination. x86 exists since late seventies, there was plenty of time for patents to expire

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