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It's 2010, But A No-Go For GNOME's 10x10 Goal

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  • It's 2010, But A No-Go For GNOME's 10x10 Goal

    Phoronix: It's 2010, But A No-Go For GNOME's 10x10 Goal

    Way back in 2005 a GNOME 10x10 goal was created by Jeff Waugh at a conference in Stuttgart, Germany. The GNOME 10x10 goal was stated as "To Own 10 % of the Global Desktop Market by 2010." Well, it's now 2010 and sadly this goal did not come to fruition for the GNOME project or even the Linux adoption rate in general commanding not even close to 10% for desktop PCs. In some specific geographical regions Linux may be controlling more than 10% of the market or for specific devices (e.g...

    http://www.phoronix.com/vr.php?view=Nzg1Mw

  • #2
    Part of the reason could be that there have been no changes to Gnome since the goal was discussed in 2005.

    Alright, before this will lead to a flamewar (it will do so anyway), I know that this is not entirely true, *but* really there's not plenty of major improvements either. Look at how KDE developed from 4.0 to 4.4 in just two years. It's full of major improvements with every release.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by d2kx View Post
      Part of the reason could be that there have been no changes to Gnome since the goal was discussed in 2005.
      Owned!

      (stupid 10char limit)

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      • #4
        There are improvements but the vast majority are invisible improvements, so a new user can not really see them.
        At least with Gnome3 we are gonna see a lot...

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        • #5
          Originally posted by d2kx View Post
          Part of the reason could be that there have been no changes to Gnome since the goal was discussed in 2005.
          It's much more simpler:
          • you can't really see with precision where you will be in 5 years from now (in the IT world), there are too many variables;
          • throwing out random estimates really doesn't help in any way.

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          • #6
            Pff who cares. Why would we make it a goal to absorb more idiot users from M$? We're not in this for profit.

            10% of the computer using world does not want to RTFM - the minimal requirement for using this platform. Most people are perfectly happy driving to the Mac store and exchanging their money for proprietary DRM software.

            We don't need to attract more people, we need to attract the right people, and Linux does a very good job of filtering out who those people are.

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            • #7
              this article, like many others, is ridiculous.
              there is no REAL way to measure anything related to pc-os usage, or even further, window manager usage... geez, thats way out of it.

              my personal assessment though(because that is ALL you can ever have...), is that linux is probably about 10% or more right now. but like i said... we'll never know, until its over 50% and its clear that we're there.

              phoronix keeps surprising me.


              cheers.

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              • #8
                This is actually worse than the article suggests in terms of Linux adoption. As his estimate of the number of people with pc access in 2010 is massively lower than the number of people with internet access in 2008/2009 by about 300 million. Then factor in the people with PC access but no internet and Linux is not looking so good.

                KDE 4 actually looks visually acceptable to mainstream users and Gnome 3.0 is looking to promise the same, video editors like Kdenlive & Pitivi are finally taking up that particular challenge, OO.o is really maturing now. We're starting to get free 3d accelerated drivers, audio seems to be slowly becoming more usable, a lot of webcams and fingerprint readers now work. These are all laying the foundations we need for mainstream use but there is one area where we have made almost no progress - Games.

                I still think it largely revolves around games. They make many times more money than the movie industry now - a large amount of people play them (and the people who do are generally more technical than other users) and / or their kids want to play them. This is no longer "optional" if we want to grow in desktop use. Yes, in business too. Home use would give us incredible mindshare in general. I don't mean indie games. I mean the Modern Warfare 2's of the world (which ironically runs single player in wine but wont run multiplayer - the important part - according to wine's appdb).

                We either need:
                A) A much more effective Wine
                B) A fully effective 3d accelerated virtualisation solution (which needs to be made easier for a normal user) or
                C) Native games.

                Thanks to steam wine is a lot more effective than I would have previously thought (avoids the hideous SECURom rootkit in favour of VAC in most cases) but it's still nothing to write home about. If microsoft manages to sucessfully push Games for Windows Live as the standard we will have nowhere to go.

                Maybe it will take a huge paradigm shift before people switch to Linux in much the same way the GUI shifted people onto Windows...

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Apopas View Post
                  There are improvements but the vast majority are invisible improvements, so a new user can not really see them.
                  At least with Gnome3 we are gonna see a lot...
                  Let me say that I like KDE and definitly think it is the future. Still, I was kind of excited about Gnome 3 at first, but the biggest problems will remain: there won't be a lot of changes for the actual Gnome applications. Rhythmbox/Banshee will still not be on par with Amarok and Empathy is a joke compared to Kopete etc. and the second problem being that

                  Originally posted by BlackStar
                  GTK is left further and further in the dust and sucks and I wish it would die.

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                  • #10
                    @Hoodlum
                    While the video games industry runs a period of ascent. The PC game specifically do not. The future of games lies to the consoles and not to the computers.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Apopas View Post
                      @Hoodlum
                      While the video games industry runs a period of ascent. The PC game specifically do not. The future of games lies to the consoles and not to the computers.
                      There are many issues here i'll tackle them one at a time:

                      People have been saying that since the PSone and probably before. The PS3 & 360 combined have ~50 million sales total (according to wikipedia). Not accounting for the dead 360s people have replaced. This is *nothing* (1/30th) compared to the number of pcs on the net. Infact counting piracy on MW2 *alone* more than dwarfs all consoles combined. The PC market is massive in comparison (but a huge percentage are pirates). Infact the PSone sold 4-5x the amount of consoles both the 360 and the PS3 have sold combined in the same amount of time. Consoles are declining. This is available on wiki and also many other places, official sales figures etc.

                      There is a lot of hype about PC gaming "dying". As there was about specific machines for specific tasks in the past - then x86 and the IBM pc came along and equalled or bettered everything else at the same time. The only problem with PC gaming is piracy and when digital download platforms (aka steam, games for windows, impulse, direct2drive, ea direct) etc take over this will be significantly more difficult. None of the digital distribution services are counted in sales figures - only retail sales are counted which make up all console sales but only some pc sales.

                      The other thing to consider is they aren't directly a replacement for eachother. Consoles are a passive lounge experience, pc gaming is an active experience. You also still cant play many types of games on the console effectively for example:
                      - Starcraft - biggest game in history,
                      - Warcraft,
                      - Dawn of war,
                      - Age of empires,
                      - Civilization,
                      - Sim City,
                      - The Sims
                      4x games:
                      - sins of a solar empire
                      Simulations like:
                      - ARMA
                      - ARMA II
                      - Flight simulator
                      and many other examples.

                      The cost arguement. PCs cost more? Sure, but there are several issues here:
                      1) The price is continually falling (I remember when 1000 wouldn't get a good pc. I can build a fast PC for half that now)
                      2) Consoles are getting more expensive every generation (See PSone, PS2, PS3. Xbox, Xbox 360).
                      3) Everyone has a PC *already*. Everyone needs a PC - I need a fast PC for work. I need the internet for personal and work use. No one needs a console, a console is a purchase in addition to a PC - this is far more expensive.. A reasonable graphics card is cheap.
                      4) Console games are more expensive.
                      5) Most games are available on the PC anyway.

                      For these reasons the PC market will always be bigger - Infact it has grown much faster than ever and the console market has shrunk. The challenge is tapping the PC market effectively, Piracy is the big issue, game design needs to change. Single player is the past, development studios need to realise this. It is about the social experience now - this is where you make money. The companies that realise this already (Blizzard for example) are already richer than their wildest dreams.

                      On the PC you can plug in a controller and it can do everything your console can and more, faster, better looking etc. Another thing to consider is World of Warcraft. They make well over a billion a year in subscriptions. This is tremendous. With this pay to play model they have established people are pirating the more traditional game types and only paying for MMOs - this is another pc only issue (but mmos are coming to consoles soon too so this should be interesting to watch the dynamic change there too)

                      The PC as a platform has the same weaknesses Linux has in this regard.....fragmentation. A thousand different copy protection systems (most of which dont work), a thousand different means of distribution (most of which suck and none are counted in sales figures) but these are quickly consolidating now.

                      Also consoles are becoming more like PCs (remember when you didnt have to install games on consoles? me too....). I also happen to know from a friend who is working on a major 360 title that future games on microsoft consoles at least (and I believe the industry as a whole) will start requiring CD keys as well. Yep, now you can have all the downsides of PC gaming in your living room - but with worse controls, worse graphics and a worse distribution system (can't buy full games, only mini games) :/ Just wait, once the fight over the distribution platform is won the rest will fall into place easily.
                      Last edited by Hoodlum; 01-02-2010, 01:42 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Hoodlums first post says it all. There's still a lot of work to make the Linux desktop really mainstream friendly (video drivers, desktop environment polish, etc... basicly what he said). Regarding games, KDE4 offers better out of the box-games than any other desktop (including Windows 7). Regarding Triple-A titles that are the real problem, I think we can't expect them to happen while the Linux desktop has these basic issues like sound not always working right and the video driver mess, but if that is sorted and it will be in around ~2 years I assume then we can talk about it again.

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                        • #13
                          I gave KDE4 a good honest try the other week. It's come a long way. I like Gnome because i'm used to it, and it works simply and easily. Is that usability or habit? Don't know.

                          If Gnome keeps going in weird directions I could see myself switching to KDE in the future. But for now at least, i'm happy with Gnome.

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                          • #14
                            I always do get a chuckle out of people claiming that consoles are cheaper. Most of the "console gamers" that I know usually have all the major systems. xbox, ps, nintendo, etc. Not only are the console games more expensive to buy but you need to have more consoles then one to get the games that you want and during the life of the console the level of detail and complexity of the games stay relatively flat during that period.

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                            • #15
                              PC game sales are UP, but the console sales are up MORE. What this tells is that while the market for video games as a whole is growing, the market is shifting further and further towards consoles.

                              None of the digital distribution services are counted in sales figures - only retail sales are counted
                              The only widely used digital distribution for video games on PC is Steam. We do not have detailed sales figures for Steam, which sucks. We do have sales figures for console digital distribution, though. We do have stats showing that Half-Life 2 had sold around 3 million units at the same time that a freaking Uno clone on XBLA had sold 1 million units. I'm not impressed by Steam's sales figures.

                              Consoles are a passive lounge experience, pc gaming is an active experience.
                              I don't know what that means, and I'm pretty sure you don't either.

                              Consoles play in many cases the same damn games the PC does. The experience is no different, other than that the console usually has a bigger higher-definition screen and uses a controller instead of a mouse and keyboard. Left 4 Dead 2 is every last bit the same experience on my Xbox360 as it is on my PC.

                              and many other examples.
                              Your examples are a large number of games from a very, very small sub-section of the game market. Basically, complex strategy and simulation games aren't great for use with a controller.

                              I could give you a list of console exclusive titles as well, but I imagine you care about those as much as most console gamers care about the Sims (e.g., not at all).

                              1) The price is continually falling (I remember when 1000 wouldn't get a good pc. I can build a fast PC for half that now)
                              Bullshit argument, since the cost of consoles is falling just as fast. Next.

                              2) Consoles are getting more expensive every generation (See PSone, PS2, PS3. Xbox, Xbox 360).
                              No, they are not. The PS3 is the super expensive one, and it flopped horrifically until its price-point dropped to the $300 range.

                              3) Everyone has a PC *already*. Everyone needs a PC
                              Again, bullshit. Laptop and netbook sales increasing faster and faster. The most popular graphics chipset in the world by a HUGE margin is incapable of playing modern games. You'll have trouble playing Left 4 Dead 1 on an Intel IGP, much less its sequel or any of the other top sellers.

                              Not all PCs are created equal. Most are not even remotely competent gaming machines. I have 5 year old games that can't run worth a crap on my laptop, which is "high end" compared to most laptops.

                              - I need a fast PC for work.
                              No, you don't. (Assuming "you" as the general populace -- I suppose if you work as a graphics designer, maybe you actually need a fast PC.)

                              No one needs a console, a console is a purchase in addition to a PC - this is far more expensive.. A reasonable graphics card is cheap.
                              A reasonable graphics card (one tiny little component of a PC, one that most people will never buy on their own) is $100. A console that can play any high-end game on the console market is $200.

                              4) Console games are more expensive.
                              If bought brand new, yes. By about $10, or 20%. Most people don't give a shit.

                              5) Most games are available on the PC anyway.
                              Most games are available on the Xbox360 anyway. (Not sure what point you were trying to make.)

                              For these reasons the PC market will always be bigger - Infact it has grown much faster than ever and the console market has shrunk.
                              Fiction is fun, but wrong.

                              Single player is the past, development studios need to realise this. It is about the social experience now - this is where you make money.
                              Which is yet another reason console gaming is pulling ahead. A social experience is much more socially engaging when you can play together on in front of the same screen than when you have to each hide in your own individual gaming caves. Split screen gaming has been a HUGE boost to consoles. The fact that very large, HDTVs are relatively cheap and sales for the TV is sky-rocketing (even die-hard PC gamers own a nice TV, generally) make split screen gaming even better than it used to be.

                              On the PC you can plug in a controller and it can do everything your console can and more, faster, better looking etc.
                              This is true. Your argument is weakened by your obvious disinclination to list off the PC's negative qualities. Just like your bogus numbers, you seem content to prove the PC's superiority by bending truth.

                              PCs ARE more expensive (I don't care if they are or are not getting cheaper -- a gaming PC at this moment in time costs WAY more than an Xbox360, end of story). PCs have higher failure rates and lower customer satisfaction (the Xbox red ring failure rates were crazy high FOR A CONSOLE. they come nowhere close to the multitude of failures PCs suffer, many of which are software issues that consoles just don't have to deal with). PCs generally require or at least encourage the use of the purchase of a monitor instead of just using the big-screen HDTV already sitting in the room. PCs are far more complicated to use and take longer to setup, learn, and play; with a console, you hit the power button, put in the disc, and play. Younger gamers are far more likely to get a console bought for them than a PC, in no small part because the console is LESS versatile than the PC (the kid can't download porn on the Xbox).

                              Another thing to consider is World of Warcraft. They make well over a billion a year in subscriptions.
                              Those numbers are absolutely irrelevant. They make that money in recurring fees from a relatively small number of games (compared to sales figures for popular games). The MMO market is totally orthogonal to the rest of the market

                              (but mmos are coming to consoles soon too so this should be interesting to watch the dynamic change there too)
                              And this is where you prove you have no fucking idea what you're talking about. MMOs have been on the consoles for YEARS, and have had incredibly good sales and subscription rates there. Nothing compared to WoW, true, but then no other PC MMO comes close to WoW, either.

                              The PC as a platform has the same weaknesses Linux has in this regard.....fragmentation.
                              I haven't heard that one before. Interesting take, but I'm not sure it's quite right. I'd label fragmentation as a side-effect of the higher ocmplexity level of PCs as a gaming platform.

                              Also consoles are becoming more like PCs (remember when you didnt have to install games on consoles? me too....).
                              Funny, I still don't have to install them.

                              I also happen to know from a friend who is working on a major 360 title that future games on microsoft consoles at least (and I believe the industry as a whole) will start requiring CD keys as well.
                              Which firmly invalidates your prior point about pirating being a PC-only problem. Thanks for helping me prove your own lies.

                              but with worse controls
                              Matter of opinion. I far prefer controllers to a mouse and keyboard. Hell, I can aim _easier_ with a controller than a mouse.

                              worse graphics
                              This is true.

                              a worse distribution system (can't buy full games, only mini games)
                              Funny, I have two full-scale Xbox games on my machine I bought on XBLA. The PS3 has an even better distribution model.

                              The Wii is the only console that lacks full-game distribution (depending on your idea of a full game -- there are some great games on WiiWare, e.g. World of Goo -- which has features the PC version does not, for that matter), and that's only because Nintendo decided not to include any means for large file storage; made the system tiny, cheap, and able to outsell PCs and other consoles month after month. Hardcore gamers might not like that decision, but the market clearly got behind it.

                              Just wait, once the fight over the distribution platform is won the rest will fall into place easily.
                              I can get behind that. I don't see any reason to believe that Steam will trump the console markets, though. The console markets had digital distribution BEFORE Steam came along, and while Steam has certainly gained a leg up over XBLA and PSN, they are not sitting still.

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