Readers: SteamOS / Steam Machines Will Lead To Significantly Greater Linux Marketshare

[ssokolow]

It should be noted that even moving up to 3 or 4% would be significant, given that would be triple or quadruple the current Steam marketshare. I personally see marketshare going to about 5% in the short term after the SteamOS launch, which is hardly revolutionary, though still a step in the right direction.

Not revolutionary? 5% is what Wikipedia's reported "visitors via OSX" wavers around. Heck, it's over half of the 9% that StatCounter reports for OSX.

[OneTimeShot]

Sadly I think that Steam Machines will be somewhat successful, but only with Windows 10 installed. Why would a manufacturer take the risk of having to support Linux, when they can just ship another Windows box?

Still, SteamOS has been great for Linux.

[Danny3]

Well, I really hope they will scceed
If they don't, I think Linux will never ever come close to Windows and will prove to other companies that Linux has no future on the desktop and they shouldn't try to support it
I'm afraid that in this case we will never have good drivers, games and we will always be forced to go back to Windows
If I would have money I would buy one of them to support Valve, but I dont

[Kver]

My guess is that we'll see a ~0.5% usage increase after the first month, and steady increases until we hit ~2-2.5% over a year. At that point unless Valve produces exclusives we'll probably settle at ~2%, possibly by moving back down from 2.5% as tweakers begin dual-booting systems to Windows after the honeymoon phase wears out.

The main thing here is Valve making their products timed exclusives for SteamOS/Linux. If they don't commit to it themselves no serious third-party will, and the platform will remain at slightly above the desktop Linux market-share where ports are always a post-Windows consideration. As the 'owners' of the platform they need to release their properties for SteamOS one or three months before the Windows version to guarantee more viability for SteamOS as a platform, and hit a market-share of ~4-5%. Ideally they should have at least one fresh timed exclusive in stock every quarter to keep up those numbers; Q1 Half Life 3, Q2 Portal 3, Q3 L4D3, Q4 TF3. They should also consider creating a new low-risk IP which is SteamOS-exclusive and takes specific advantage of the Steam Controller.

I doubt they'll do that though, so I imagine SteamOS market-share will at most add an extra 1-1.5% over the existing Desktop market. With a significant marketing push they can reach that figure more quickly, but it will still settle once the reality of the platform sinks in. Basically, if they treat this like a desktop (no exclusives) they'll get desktop Linux market-share - but if they treat it like a console they will achieve more respectable penetration.

Finally, Valve needs to push up market-share quickly so they are in a better position to consider locking-in third party exclusives if they take this approach. They will need at least a Nintendo-ish-level of active users on SteamOS/Linux to make this financially viable though as no company will touch even 2x the current Linux market without a cost-prohibitive licensing fee, or a too-short-to-matter period of times exclusivity for the costs.

[raonlinux]

Sadly I think that Steam Machines will be somewhat successful, but only with Windows 10 installed. Why would a manufacturer take the risk of having to support Linux, when they can just ship another Windows box?

Still, SteamOS has been great for Linux.

Well I don' t think so, already this steam machine allienware had equivalent bring it with windows version, so this mean they already on the market is not huge deal, remember steam go away from windows for simple reason, Microsoft decide to go all close in app store, as cell phone, where are you going to keep yours game on microsoft store and in a microsoft apps. That is the main reason Valve go away from Microsoft and produce the steam Machine as Steam OS, as also support Vulkan because Microsoft with the new windows is trying to monopolize more than nothing. Also there is something Microsoft right now is taking google path with all privacy and stuff also is selling an OS collecting all your info and sending to you ads.

[Guest]

Of course people on a site that mainly does articles on Linux performance are going to think that a Linux based OS for console-like PC's is going to be a smashing success.

I doubt that's the case.

I will never buy a Steam machine that can run everything my Linux machine can run - but I might buy PS4 because it has exclusive titles.

[Zeioth]

Well for me it worked. There's so many steam games in linux that if i want to play a game and it's only for windows I don't bother to switch SO, because I can choose any other I like. It's not a big deal.

[gamerk2]

Sadly I think that Steam Machines will be somewhat successful, but only with Windows 10 installed.

Soooo...an Xbox One?

[LeJimster]

It's not going to take over the universe and I'd be surprised if you saw double digit market share immediately. But betting against Valve and SteamOS is a dumb move considering their track record. People saying PC gamers don't want a console and this is why SteamOS is going to fail, but I know plenty of PC gamers who run a HTPC or raspberry pi on their big screen already, so SteamOS would be perfect for them.

I think the major gripe will be not enough AAA titles on the platform, but there are tons of indie games to keep people entertained and I think people will take advantage of the in-game streaming. Once the publishers see the platform growing it'll push them into porting/developing more titles for Linux.

[anarki2]

Wishful thinking in action! Like in the last 20 years. It never gets old, believe me !